I guess we're not going to war with Iran.

I'm not usually an optimist, but today's report that the National Intelligence Estimate assesses Iran gave up its nuclear weapon program in 2003 fills me with cautious optimism. Why? Because that's one potential casus belli gone from the Bush administration's bag o' reasons to invade.

Then there was the report a few weeks back that Iran is at least trying to stem the flow of weapons into Iraq. That's another excuse to invade gone.

For a while there, I was pretty worried. Now, the smart thing to do in this case is to do a whole "Nixon goes to China" thing and begin some intense open diplomacy with Iran. Dangle some real carrots in their face, and even (gasp!) make some real concessions. I'm not saying we have to like the regime, I'm not even saying we have to fully normalize relations, but this is an opportunity for this administration to get something right, or at least make a good faith effort for lasting peace. The initial rumblings out of the White House aren't encouraging, but tomorrow is another day.

I'd also like to give my compliments to the writers of this NIE. It is clear, readable, and more "fair and balanced" than anything I've seen from the media in a long while.